Predator Prey Counts in a cardboard habitat.
A very scientific study of the bakery animal.

text & photographs by Martha Jordan
Introduction by her dog who's smarter than she is.

I'm a herding dog. That's what I do. I can herd anything. I can make little animals do my bidding. I could eat them if I wanted to. I make them go here and there, squeaking little pinheads that they are. Why? Because I can herd anything. What? The Bumble Ball episode? I don't want to talk about that.

Love, Tucker Jordan

decorated by President Bush, "Take Pride in America" award for volunteer work with the US Fish and Wildlife Service for... you guessed it. Herding. (Migratory waterfowl, not Bumble Balls.)

How many times have you passed the cookie aisle at your favorite grocery and looked down to see the Barnum's Animals Crackers boxes stacked neatly on the shelf? You probably passed by without a second thought except nostalgic ones of a glass of milk when you were a child. Nostalgia aside, I decided that as a wildlife biologist it was time to give this battered subject its just due. So, while I started out to do an exhaustive study, I ended up with a study that I found exhausting. Nonetheless, what follows are the results of my labors and those of the fortunate people who brought their own milk, or latte, or tea and sat down to help me crunch the numbers.

I noted that in each box purchased there were three common factors:

1) several species of animals of both predator and prey types were present,

2) some of the animals were whole, others broken and some animal pieces at the bottom of the box, and

3) no matter how many animals are contained in the habitat, at some point in time all animals are predated within the habitat.

I began a study of the box habitat phenomenon looking at the question: What is the predator/prey relationship of animal cookies in cardboard habitats?

When designing this study I originally had in mind simply looking at the predator-prey relationship in Barnum's Animal Crackers (BAC) representing small flocks in boxes. However, on a visit to Costco I noticed that these animals also came in a larger, see through plastic habitat Stauffer's Animal Crackers Originals (SACO) or large herds in bulk containers. It was imperative that I modify the study to attempt to shed light on the clearly visible fact that very few animals appeared to be predated within this large herd. Therefore, I looked at two main questions to attempt to shed light on this issue:

1) Are prey species more vulnerable to attack in large herds versus smaller flocks? and

2) Are there other predation factors that are present that affect either or both of these populations?

Within each habitat type I examined the species diversity, predator/prey ratio, the type of prey taken and how many predators were injured.
Two types of BAC small flocks were found- vanilla and chocolate, likely variants of the same species. There were a variable number of animals found in the samples of the same habit type, vanilla 20, 26, and 22. The chocolate sample had 17 animals. Each sample contained 10 different species out of a possible 14 species known to exist in this habitat type. The species were

1) prey species: kangaroo, monkey, gorilla, giraffe rhinoceros, hippopotamus, camel, sheep, zebra, buffalo, bear, and

2) predator species: lion, mountain lion, tiger.

In both the vanilla and chocolate races, I found the predator/prey percent to be 79 percent prey species and 21 percent predators. This appears to be a healthy balance of more prey species than predators. However, within these small vanilla flocks there appears to be a higher proportion of mortality in predators during the hunt. Between 30 and 45 percent of animals killed were predators compared to 55 to 73 percent prey species. The chocolate animal cookies seem to fare better in their box habitat. Of the 17 animals present, 13 were entire and 4 were predated, 2 prey and 2 predators. This is 23% predation level compared with the 42-45% predation level in vanilla animal cookies. The predator/prey ratio of death was 1:1 in the chocolate variety versus 30 to 45% predators in the vanilla variety. It appeared that animals were killed but not eaten since the entire animal could be found, although definitely not in one piece. It does appear that chocolate predators find their prey more challenging.

The may be pure speculation but one possibility is that chocolate cookies can hide more easily (camouflage) in their darkened habitat and thus escape detection and/or are less prone to attack by predators due to this night camouflage. This subject may deserve further research. However, it definitely appears that the act of observation sheds light on the situation and therefore these animals become equally subject to predation by other creatures. In the chocolate's habitat there were no random pieces of carnage.

The SACO herd had 992 animals of 12 species of which 10 were prey and 2 predator species. The animals found were:

1) prey: hippopotamus, donkey, buffalo, elephant, rhinoceros, goat, camel, bear, horse and cow, and

2) predator: cat and lion.

It appears that there is less diversity in the larger herd with the camel at 90 being most abundant animal. Most species were between 70 and 84 individual animals, the goat being the exception at 58. Both the lion and cat were abundant with 80 and 70 individuals respectively for a total of 16 percent of the population. While every species, including the predators suffered mortality, the horse (12) and elephant (13) were the most common prey killed. There were 47 prey species, compared to 7 predator species found dead. This is 5 percent and less than one percent of the population respectively.

It is known that there is safety in large numbers, or why would wildebeests form such vast herds on the plains. Therefore, it seems reasonable that due to the large size of the herd and the relatively low number of predators in the population that mortality will be, and is in fact, lower in the large SACO herd than the BAC flocks.

Active predation among animals was observed for the first time. I observed, and photographed, a cat taking a horse and carrying it off (see photo). While I witnessed several attempts by prey species to attempt escape by one individual hiding behind another (cookies fused front to back) and hiding under each other (one on the back of another), no other acts of actual predation were observed.
Are there other predation factors that are present that affect either or both of these populations? There appears to be an outside influence on the predation and eventual extinction of animals within each of these habitats. During the course of my research I observed what happens when animals leave their natural habitat and go exploring. It appears that they are 100 percent predated either by large bipedal organisms or smaller, four-legged hairy beasts that dart quickly when they hear one of the cookie animals drop to the floor due to gravitational forces then go scooting across the floor in a vain attempt at escape. The bi-pedal predators are voracious, they are frequently seen putting their appendages into the habitat and harassing the quarry until it leaves the area - both predator and prey species are equally vulnerable to these random attacks. In the smaller flocks all of the animals will be quickly predated in this manner. The larger herds, likely due to the numbers of animals, require many such encounters, but eventually they are all eaten. Perhaps there need to be discussions with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service regarding possible listing under the Endangered Species Act? At the very least it is more food for thought.

Biologist Martha Jordan is a regular contibutor to Get Lost Magazine. She channels little swans who like to tell whopper tales.